In my book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, I laid out a detailed template describing the dynamics of what would likely happen as a result of unsustainable imbalances in the supply and demand for debt.
I'd take it even further - the market may not even be waiting on the "three years, give or take two" timeline. It could already be pricing the fact that the central bank has lost the option to fight inflation cleanly. The debasement trade doesn't need the heart attack to happen, as long as the exit stays closed.
Been circling this from the gold side in my own writing on the Fed's bind. Really valuable to see the mechanics laid out this clearly! 👍🏻
There's no type of monetary manipulation that can abolish economic reality. Governments and central banks created the machinery that enabled this debt explosion through cheap credit, monetary expansion, and deficit spending, encouraging malinvestment and borrowing over saving.
The remedy is to end the manipulation: stop monetizing debt, restore sound money and market interest rates, cut spending, and let bad debts and malinvestments liquidate. The economy doesn't need more intervention—it needs the distortions to unwind.
Great summary Mr. Dalio! I’d be interested in your thoughts regarding the recent announcement of “Economic D-Day” regarding Iran and Secretary Bessent’s comments regarding applying measures that “have never been seen”. On the face of it, this would seem to set up a further bifurcation of the global monetary order as Iran and its trading partners work to circumvent the dollar based monetary plumbing.
Apologies, I posted before finishing my questions! Is it possible from publicly-a ailae data concerning treasury auctions, to gauge and understand clearly, the exact amount of demand (or otherwise) for new government debt?
Lastly, when you talk about central bank money printing, where/how exactly do you see the printing occurring? Is it “notes and coins in circulation”, reserve balances, M1, M2 - or some combination of these (or something different)? How do you catch CBs in the act of money printing and where do you look for the data please? Presumably they are averse to stating honestly, the CB’s reasons for printing?
I always enjoy reading your insights and thoughts - thank you very much, Ray. Would you please identify the data sources that you believe are reliable for helping people know:-
* the total amount of government debt service (and do you look at only the Federal government or do you also include State and municipal debt)?
* the total amount of government revenue
2) The amount of selling of government debt there is relative to the amount of demand for government debt (which is like the plaque breaking off and causing a heart attack), and
3) The amount of central bank printing of money to purchase government debt to make up the shortfall in demand for government debt
Thanks, Ray! Buttoning it down for us as our heads swirl with daily news and trying to understand how it all fits into a bigger picture really helps. Have a great weekend!
Genuinely curious how you’d translate this into a discount rate assumption for equity models today — is there a rule-of-thumb for how much the risk-free rate in WACC should already be adjusted given where we are in this cycle, or is that too country/timing-specific to generalize?
I started a series this week about the debt and the 5 roads out of it. In my research I found some pretty interesting details about the AI Boom and it was surprising to learn who some of the big winners may be.
You recommend underweighting bonds, which seems reasonable. But by most long-term valuation metrics, the stock market is overvalued also. If only 15% of one's money is in gold, and we don't want more than (say) 15% in bonds and 15% in overvalued stocks, where can the other 55% go?
Thanks for your good article , Its like death everyone knows its inevitable but yet they pretend will live for ever
I'd take it even further - the market may not even be waiting on the "three years, give or take two" timeline. It could already be pricing the fact that the central bank has lost the option to fight inflation cleanly. The debasement trade doesn't need the heart attack to happen, as long as the exit stays closed.
Been circling this from the gold side in my own writing on the Fed's bind. Really valuable to see the mechanics laid out this clearly! 👍🏻
There's no type of monetary manipulation that can abolish economic reality. Governments and central banks created the machinery that enabled this debt explosion through cheap credit, monetary expansion, and deficit spending, encouraging malinvestment and borrowing over saving.
The remedy is to end the manipulation: stop monetizing debt, restore sound money and market interest rates, cut spending, and let bad debts and malinvestments liquidate. The economy doesn't need more intervention—it needs the distortions to unwind.
Great summary Mr. Dalio! I’d be interested in your thoughts regarding the recent announcement of “Economic D-Day” regarding Iran and Secretary Bessent’s comments regarding applying measures that “have never been seen”. On the face of it, this would seem to set up a further bifurcation of the global monetary order as Iran and its trading partners work to circumvent the dollar based monetary plumbing.
Apologies, I posted before finishing my questions! Is it possible from publicly-a ailae data concerning treasury auctions, to gauge and understand clearly, the exact amount of demand (or otherwise) for new government debt?
Lastly, when you talk about central bank money printing, where/how exactly do you see the printing occurring? Is it “notes and coins in circulation”, reserve balances, M1, M2 - or some combination of these (or something different)? How do you catch CBs in the act of money printing and where do you look for the data please? Presumably they are averse to stating honestly, the CB’s reasons for printing?
I always enjoy reading your insights and thoughts - thank you very much, Ray. Would you please identify the data sources that you believe are reliable for helping people know:-
* the total amount of government debt service (and do you look at only the Federal government or do you also include State and municipal debt)?
* the total amount of government revenue
2) The amount of selling of government debt there is relative to the amount of demand for government debt (which is like the plaque breaking off and causing a heart attack), and
3) The amount of central bank printing of money to purchase government debt to make up the shortfall in demand for government debt
thank you for sharing.
Thanks, Ray! Buttoning it down for us as our heads swirl with daily news and trying to understand how it all fits into a bigger picture really helps. Have a great weekend!
Genuinely curious how you’d translate this into a discount rate assumption for equity models today — is there a rule-of-thumb for how much the risk-free rate in WACC should already be adjusted given where we are in this cycle, or is that too country/timing-specific to generalize?
Good article! Thank you for this!
I started a series this week about the debt and the 5 roads out of it. In my research I found some pretty interesting details about the AI Boom and it was surprising to learn who some of the big winners may be.
Not sure countries go broke but they sure will tax and regulate the hell out of you and the companies you started
Great (concerning) Share.
You recommend underweighting bonds, which seems reasonable. But by most long-term valuation metrics, the stock market is overvalued also. If only 15% of one's money is in gold, and we don't want more than (say) 15% in bonds and 15% in overvalued stocks, where can the other 55% go?